The View
Renewed U.S.-Russia relationship might have deeper geostrategic consequences
By DOUG SITLER
Published February 21, 2025
President Donald Trump sent shockwaves across the globe when it was announced that he had had a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A result of the discussion was that both world leaders agreed to meet and discuss peace talks to end the three-year Russian invasion of Ukraine. European countries and Ukraine are skeptical and anxious as to what the U.S. and Russian discussion might yield.
Jacob Kathman, professor and chair of the Department of Political Science, College of Arts and Sciences, is an expert on international relations and conflict management. He believes the Trump administration’s approach may not sufficiently account for the fact that Russia has been an historic adversary that seeks to displace the U.S. as a global leader.
Kathman spoke with UBNow about what negotiations between the U.S. and Russia might mean for both countries, Europe and Ukraine.
Is this a good thing that Trump and Putin are talking again and signaling a willingness to reestablish normal relations?
This depends on the perspective that you take. If taken from the perspective of Russia, yes, this is likely a very good thing. It is much easier to negotiate with the U.S. alone than it is to confront a unified U.S., Ukraine and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). From the perspective of Ukraine and much of Europe, no, this is not a good thing. Generally speaking, the NATO alliance has been arrayed in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When a collection of countries is in lockstep with one another, it is good practice in negotiations to include all stakeholders at the table. It is only in this way that the stakeholders can reach a suitable settlement.
If the U.S. has the best interests of Europe and Ukraine at heart, it would demand that NATO and Ukraine have a seat at the table in these negotiations. As a matter of course, this would give the U.S. more bargaining leverage in negotiating a conclusion to the war with Russia. Instead, the U.S. has chosen to go it alone, sacrificing leverage in negotiations. This indicates one of two things. It could be that the American administration is generally incompetent in its approach to pursuing its shared interests with its European allies, because seasoned negotiators do not unilaterally sacrifice leverage at the very start of negotiations. Or, more likely, it could be that the Trump administration is beginning a dramatic shift in strategic priorities, devaluing the NATO alliance in favor of Russia’s wishes.
To be clear, Russia seeks to displace the U.S. as a global leader. NATO has been a centerpiece of American geostrategic interests for the last eight decades and has helped to maintain historic stability on the European continent during that time. Partiality to Russia in this conflict is akin to ceding American global leadership in favor of a rival whose ambitions include pushing American influence out of Eastern Europe and unseating the U.S. from its global position.
Do you believe the U.S. and Russia are truly trying to de-escalate conflict between each other and in Ukraine?
This is hard to know. President Trump has indeed made many statements to indicate that he wishes the war to end. However, the terms of termination are a central concern, and it has not been evident that the president has a clear grasp on what terms to pursue in achieving a cessation that is acceptable to all parties and satisfies the rules-based global system. This system was largely created by the U.S. following World War II and has generally favored American prominence since then. However, President Trump appears to be dissatisfied with this very system, even while Democratic and Republican administrations alike have considered it to be supportive of American interests.
Why did President Biden have a frozen relationship with Russia?
Russia has violated the most basic foundations of the rules-based international order that was created by the U.S. and has been defended by it. The basic premise of the American system is that countries cannot threaten, invade or otherwise overtake the territorial sovereignty of other countries. Russia under Putin has repeatedly flouted these rules. It has invaded Georgia, it engaged in brutal war crimes in Chechnya, it invaded an annexed Crimea and it engaged in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is not to mention its various interventions in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, all of which have included dismal human rights practices. Russia’s aggressiveness has frozen its relationship with most of the world, not simply the Biden administration.