Carolina Arteaga, University of Toronto

Carolina Arteaga, Victoria Barone

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the opioid epidemic on political outcomes by leveraging rich geographic variation in exposure to the crisis. We study its effect on the Republican vote share in House and presidential elections from 1982 to 2020. Our results suggest that greater exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share, starting in the early 2000s. This higher vote share translated into Republicans winning additional seats in the House from 2012 until 2020 and House members holding more conservative views. These effects are explained by changes in voter views rather than in voter composition.

DATE: Friday, March 29, 2024

TIME: 3:30-5:00 p.m.

LOCATION: Fronczak 444