Casey J Wichman, Georgia Tech

Climate amenities are a key determinant of household location decisions. At the same time, migration can serve as an effective adaptation strategy to avoid climate risks. However, throughout the 21st century, Americans have largely moved towards hotter, drier, and more coastal regions, which may increase exposure to climate extremes. Here, I explore whether aversion to winter weather is a causal factor of population change in cold climates. Specifically, I estimate how snow influences annual county-level net migration rates in the Great Lakes region since 1970. I isolate the effect of snow from other climate attributes by comparing migration rates in regions exposed to Lake Effect Snow (LES)—where moisture picked up by cold air moving over the Great Lakes leads to heavy snowfall in geographically distinct areas downwind—to non-LES exposed regions. I find that higher-than-average snowfall in LES regions leads to net population loss in the following year. The migration response to snow is strongest for young adults, aged 20–34, with smaller effects for the 60–69 age cohort. Late-season snow has a relatively strong influence on migration. Non-LES regions exhibit virtually no migration-response to snow, which suggests that the effect is not driven by general aversion to snow and that the response may be sensitive to whether individuals believe weather events to be anomalous or informative about future conditions.

DATE: Friday, November 15, 2024

TIME: 3:30-5:00 p.m.

LOCATION: Fronczak 444